The climate of South Africa is affected by the changes in global climate mentioned in previous sections and more information on this is given below. However, South Africa is also itself a contributor to the global climate change problem. In 1990, South Africa was responsible for about 1.2% of the total global warming effect which placed it within the top ten contributing countries in the world. The carbon dioxide equivalent emission rate per person in South Africa (about 10 tons of CO2 per person per year) is above the global average (7 tons pppy) - although this is still considerably below that of developed countries such as the United States (20 tons pppy - 1991). The burning of fossil fuels in South Africa is the primary source of this carbon dioxide.

More information on climatic and atmospheric change in South Africa is provided within the National State of Environment Report. Climate and Atmospheric Change - State of Environment Report

In terms of the impacts of climate change on South Africa, recent studies for the 'Country Studies Project' predict that climate change will cause mean temperature increases in the range of between 1oC and 3oC by the mid 21st century, with the highest increases in the most arid parts of the country. A broad reduction of rainfall in the range 5% - 10% has been predicted for the summer rainfall region. This is likely to be accompanied by an increased incidence of both drought and floods, with prolonged dry spells being followed by intense storms. A marginal increase in early winter rainfall is predicted for the winter rainfall region of the country. A rise in sea level is also predicted - perhaps by as much as 0.9m by 2100.

These changes in climate may have significant effects on various sectors of South African society and the economy. This is known as South Africa’s ‘vulnerability’ to climate change. Any measures taken by South African society in response to these changes as an attempt to cope with them are known as ‘adaptation’. For more information on South Africa’s vulnerability and adaptation see the– Vulnerability and Adaptation section of this website. However, the following provides a brief overview of the main areas of likely change and concern.

The increased temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns can be expected to bring about some general health impacts, including and increase in the occurrence of strokes, skin rashes, dehydration and the incidence of non-melanoma skin cancers. Climate change may also bring about indirect health impacts (such as an increase in the incidence of water-borne diseases such as cholera) as a result of ecosystem changes. Further, an increase in the incidence of vector borne diseases such as malaria, which can be strongly affected by environmental factors, are to be expected.

South Africa’s rainfall is erratic in distribution and highly variable between years. Thus much of the country is arid and subject to droughts and floods. A system of large storage dams and inter-basin transfer schemes are used extensively in South Africa to ensure a reliable bulk water supply to the various user sectors. Such infrastructure takes years to develop and thus water supply is a particularly vulnerable area with respect to climate change in South Africa. Further, the impacts of climate change could exacerbate desertification, which is already a problem in the country.

Rangelands will become more arid and agricultural output can be expected to decline in the absence of corrective measures being applied. Thus food production, which needs to increase to meet the needs of a growing population, is directly threatened by climate change. Further, climate change presents a number of threats to South Africa’s important biodiversity heritage.

See the section on 'Activity in South Africa' for more details on vulnerability and adaptation – and the other ways in which South Africa is tackling climate change.